is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, June
The Major Catalysts for
consensus earnings estimate is for $4.99 per share on revenue of $21.39 billion;
but the Whisper number is a bit higher at $5.19 per share.
estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 97.23% with revenue
increasing by 23.23%.
interest has decreased by 5.5% and overall earnings estimates for the quarter has been revised
9.11% higher over the last 30 days to the current level.
“We expect a beat for F4Q21 as many
of the LTM trends we have seen will continue. However, more than ever, 4Q
results are likely not as important as the FY22 guide, which will be the
critical test of how much of the pandemic tailwinds mgmt. believes are
sustainable (and deserves to be priced in),” noted Simeon Gutman, equity analyst at Morgan
“We see EBIT growth through YE of
FY21 driven by both margin improvement and vol. driven rev. growth which is
helped by limited Airfreight capacity and an eCommerce surge, though yields are
mixed. We continue to see secular threats to Parcel and remain skeptical that
these trends will be sustainable but believe that until there is evidence of a
reversal in earnings momentum, the stock can trade at its historical multiple
(14-15x PE) on current EPS.”
For the last
reported quarter, it was expected that FedEx would post earnings of $3.21 per
share when it actually produced earnings of $3.47, delivering a surprise of
last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
volumes, thanks to the coronavirus-driven rise in e-commerce demand and
door-to-door delivery services are likely to have aided FedEx’s performance in
the to-be-reported quarter.
FedEx’s Ground unit, which handles e-commerce deliveries for many retailers, is
expected to have benefited from higher residential delivery volume growth
during the fiscal fourth quarter. Additionally, the Express segment, buoyed by
international export and U.S. domestic-package volume growth, is anticipated to
have generated higher revenues during the soon-to-be-reported quarter. As for
the Freight segment, higher revenues per shipment and average daily shipments
are likely to have boosted revenues in the fiscal fourth quarter, as was the
case in the previous reported quarter.
Additionally, FedEx’s December 2020 acquisition of ShopRunner, boosting its
e-commerce offerings, is likely to have contributed to the company’s top line.
pandemic has loosened its grip in the U.S. since fiscal year 2021 began, but
delivery demand remains red-hot for FedEx and other carriers. Room on FedEx’s
fleet of airplanes, trucks and vans is harder to come by, giving the company
the power to push higher rates and surcharges onto its customers.
a reduction in air cargo capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many
passenger planes grounded. Jack Atkins, a FedEx analyst at Stephens, said in a
note the biggest wild card for FedEx's business is how soon international
passenger belly capacity returns to pre-pandemic levels.
airlines carried 41.2 million passengers in March, seasonally adjusted, per the
Bureau of Transportation Statistics. That’s an improvement from March 2020 but
is still down more than 43% versus the three years previous.
The reduction in competition has been a favorable development for
all-cargo airline FedEx Express.
FedEx COO Raj Subramaniam said FedEx Express expects elevated air cargo pricing
levels for at least the next year until supply improves, after which FedEx “will flex our networks appropriately”
to adjust. If that timeline holds despite the recent uptick in air travel
demand, FedEx Express will reap the benefits.
4. In-house Deliveries.....
been some decline due to FedEx Ground keeping deliveries in-house that it once
would have handed off to the U.S. Postal Service, delivery experience
management company Convey co-founder Carson Krieg said. However, he added that
this operational adjustment is a “short-term
gamble for a long-term payoff” in more efficient delivery routes and the
company’s service levels should improve.
“I think they’re doing it at a smart
time of year,” Krieg said.
reported performance slip, businesses are still relying on FedEx to
deliver goods to online shoppers more than ever. Atkins is expecting a
strong earnings report from the company, as demand remains at dizzying heights.
“With underlying demand trends
strong and its network full, we believe FedEx continues to realize healthy
pricing improvement as it works to drive improved profitability on its
(business-to-consumer) traffic,” he said.
Freight, a provider of less-than-truckload freight shipping services, is a
smaller piece of FedEx’s operations compared to FedEx Express and FedEx Ground.
But the company has contributed to FedEx’s overall turnaround, with an
operating income and margin this fiscal year well ahead of where it was in
a FedEx analyst at Stephens, said FedEx overall has upside potential “driven by robust demand, improving business
mix and strong core yield trends across FDX's three primary business segments
(Express, Ground and Freight).”
In its most
recently reported quarter, average daily shipments for FedEx Freight were up 3%
from the year-before quarter. The company has also been mingling more with
other FedEx operating companies of late, delivering more than 1.75 million
shipments for Ground in the fiscal year as of March.
consensus has improved in the last three months, now standing at an
‘Overweight’ rating based upon 20 ‘Buy’, 3 ‘Overweight’, 6 ‘Hold’, and 1
‘Underweight’ recommendation. Price targets currently range from a low of $265
to a Street-high $383 while the stock closed Friday’s session just $20 above
the low target.
FedEx has also been the subject of a
number of research reports.....
- Wells Fargo
& Company lifted their price target on shares of FedEx from $336.00 to
$351.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a research
report on Thursday, May 20th.
James lifted their price target on shares of FedEx from $310.00 to $330.00 and
gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a research report on Friday,
Stanley lifted their price target on shares of FedEx from $250.00 to $265.00
and gave the stock an "equal weight" rating in a research report on
Thursday, June 3rd.
lifted their price target on shares of FedEx from $350.00 to $370.00 and gave
the stock an "overweight" rating in a research report on Wednesday,
Wolfe Research upgraded shares of FedEx from a "peer perform" rating
to an "outperform" rating in a research report on Monday, May 3rd.