Education · Lessons from the Byte
Does a catalyst tell you when to sell?
From $6.55, the $7.86 and $9.82 targets were both reached on September 18, the first trading session after the alert. The $13.10 target followed on September 21. The option reached a high of $22.35 on September 24, then declined. On October 8, it traded as low as $2.50, below the published 60% stop of $2.62. The calls expired on October 9 with INTC at $104.70, below the $105 strike.
Here's how the choices compare:
- Taking profits in stages: potential gains of 20%, 50% and 100% on the three contracts, averaging about 57% across the position.
- Holding all three with the stop: a potential loss of 60% on each contract.
- Holding all three with no stop: a last traded price of $0.05, representing a potential loss of more than 99% of the premium.
Neither plan captured the $22.35 high. Under the staged exit plan, all three contracts had already reached their targets. Under the holding plan, the option subsequently fell to the stop level.
Ian's alerts include a section called *The Major Catalysts*. Our education library describes catalysts as short-term events likely to have a significant effect on a stock's price. These include company events such as earnings reports, mergers and acquisitions, leadership changes and new product releases. Events affecting one company can also influence others in the same sector, positively or negatively. Broader economic and political developments, including interest rate changes, unemployment figures and international relations, can also act as catalysts.
A catalyst can be the reason a price moves. It doesn't tell you how far, or for how long.
All three INTC targets were reached by September 21. By expiry, the stock was below the strike. Ian's research identifies potential catalysts, while our exit guidelines set the targets and stop before the outcome is known. As our education library puts it, weekly options are "especially time sensitive."
This lesson first appeared in Weekly Options Bytes, our free email from Ian Harvey’s options research desk.
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